Horse Racing Backing Systems : Using The Racing Post Website Part Two

So you've found the online Racing Post website and are starting to find the navagational site a bit easier with regards to horse racing information and form. The next part usually involves betting and can be the difference between actually making a medium or long term profit. If you just like making the odd £5 fun bet on the Cheltenham Gold Cup or The Garand National for instance then, that's fine, but if you want to bet on a regular basis then, make sure you have a PLAN of action!

                                                                                      

Racing Post can give you the facility for using free information to make an informed choice on any UK horse race, whether it's a class 6 all weather meeting at Woverhampton or a class 1 turf meeting at Ascot. Finding a horse's form and stats with things like ground conditions, distance, weight, type of race, class, trainer course form, jockey recent form... is very straightforward and can make a genuine difference to how you look at and approach the sport and any future bets :)  

With your new found information you won't be betting blindly or following the crowd, remember doing that will lead to the poor house, as they can't all be right or the odds would be small and any real value would be lost. Picking the right horse to win or even lose a race is fine, but the real sauce is in the VALUE.                                                                                     

I still tend to use three places for my horse racing win or e/way bets - Betfair, Bet365 and Ladbrokes. All of these businesses are established, they offer good free bets to join, they pay out their winnings with the minimum amount of fuss and they have good customer service levels. These are the type of companies that, you want to deal with especially if you plan on betting on a regular basis.

All of your future information should be found using the Racing Post website, as it truly is the horse racing bible for betting punters.    

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Horse Racing Backing Systems : Using The Racing Post Website Part One 

If you ever want to get involved with horse racing and in particular betting then, the Racing Post is a must and is the bible for horse racing fans and punters. There are other sites out there which are decent, but for reading and understanding form this should be your number one choice and can be the difference between making the right selection and gaining a profit!

Any horse racing backing system should have a few decent rules and filters in place or it just won't work in the long term. Things like weight, distance, ground, class, trainer course from, age of horse, recent horse form, course characteristics and fitness of horse should be considered.

The first thing I want to look at and is one of the most important factors in my opinion is distance. There's no point in betting on a horse who is a 2m specialist in a 3m race? I'm not saying it can't win, but if it's not proven over that distance then, you'd be taking a punt and that's something I try and avoid and never recommend.

The three main filters for UK handicap turf meetings in my opinion are distance, ground conditions, weight and trainer course form and for the purpose of this exercise, we'll stick with that. 

From the above screenshot we can see that it's the 5.30 at Ludlow. The race has nine runners over 2m 5f and is a class 4 handicap over hurdles and the current ground conditions are good.

The next thing you'd want to do is click on the horse one who is called Helium and check there previous distance form for the last five races. The filters I would personally have is a 1f parameter either side of 2m 5f, so that would be 2m 3f - 2m 5f and the horse has either won or came within 10 lengths of the winning horse. For each qualifying race score the horse one point to a maximum of five.   

From the screenshot above I've placed the black dots against potential qualifiers from it's last five races. The race at Towcester the horse came 2nd 4 lengths behind the winner, the next one at Taunton the horse won the race by a head and the final race at Market Rasen the horse came 4th 9 and a quarter lengths behind the leader. The next stage is to open up each of these three potential races and check the distance parameters of between 2m 3f - 2m 5f.

From the screenshot above we can see that the Towcester race was over 2m and therefore doesn't qualify within our distance parameters.

From the next screenshot of race two at Taunton we can see that the race was won over 2m 1f, but again it doesn't qualify within our distance parameters.

      

From the final screenshot of our three races from Market Rasen we can see that our horse came 4th, but again it doesn't quality as the race was over 2m 1f and not within our accepted distance parameters, so you would award Helium no points for the distance category.

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Horse Racing Backing Systems : Getting Value 

You've probably heard this countless times in horse racing betting circles, but value is and always will be one of the most important components of betting and can be the difference between a healthy or small profit. Let's just say you had a class 3 horse race at Ffos Las and there were eight runners. Based on the information that you've perhaps looked at on the Racing Post website you thought that, the horse in question had a 40% chance of winning. Would you accept evens money at the bookies or 2.0 at Betfair? If you answered yes, then you need to rethink your strategy, even if the horse did go on and win the race. In the end it will catch up with you and net net, you will eventually show a loss.

One of the most difficult things to overcome with a rigid system with specific rules and filters is value. How do you know that, the chosen horse selection offers real value when your faced with the current odds. The real answer to that is your DON'T! The only way you can address this issue is by having a minimum odds criteria which I always have with my horse racing backing systems. This still doesn't guarantee us value from every selection, but what it does do is to eliminate horses that have lower odds and allows folk to concentrate on horses that have odds which are reasonably attractive.

I've never been a layer of horses, as it doesn't suit my style and I enjoy the analysis side of betting more and looking for sensible angles in trying to find the winning horse. One race however, that sticks in my mind is one which took place at Kelso in Scotland back in February 2010. There were four horses in the race and two of them were donkeys in my opinion. The hot favourite was a horse called Zaynar and there was another horse called Quwetwo who I though had an outside chance of winning. Zaynar had a rating of 168, liked soft ground and the 2m 2f distance and trained by Nicky Henderson, whilst Quwetwo had a rating of 133 also liked soft ground and wasn't really proven over this particular distance, but was trainer by Paul Nicholls. The odds read as follows -

Zaynar : Bookie 1/14 | Betfair 1.06

Quwetwo : Bookie 12/1 | Betfair 14.5

I thought to myself I need a new television for the back bedroom, so this could be a chance to grab so money. Do I back Qwetwo at 12/1 with £20 or lay him for £300 give me a liability for just £18. The laying option gave me the better option, as I have £2 less on the table to lose and the two other donkeys in the race are also on my side :)    

Quewtwo did win this tight battle over Zaynar by one length and I got £300 added to my Betfair account less the 5% win commission and a new TV for not much risk. The moral of the story is, did I get value? You Bet!

These one off bets very rarely come along, but when they do pay attention to the odds of the favourite horse, as some punters just pile money on hot favourites without doing a bit of due diligence. You must ALWAYS have another horse in the race which has a genuine chance of winning, as there's no point in going against the favourite, if the rest of the field are more suited to Blackpool beach than a race course?

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Horse Racing Backing Systems : So You Think You've Got It Sussed Out?

We can all be wise after the event and say I knew that horse was going to win, but the truth is, how many times have your said that when the horse your were going to bet on gets easily beaten? Probably more than once! Don't beat yourself up about missed opportunities or even betting selections with tasty odds that fall at the last or get beaten by a short head. That's horse racing for you and things DO even themselves up in the end.

I recently had a horse with Betfair odds of 38 lead quite comfortably and get beat by a nose on the line. Now that was a sore one to take and the difference between nothing and adding a nice £433 to my betting bank! These are the kind of moments that will test your metal and do you have what's required to stay focused. It does require strong discipline and I keep emphasing this point in any sytem I have. You can have the best system in the world, but if you don't have the discipline required when the losses arrive then, you WILL lose money.

There are many people in the horse racing marketplace that claim to have found the secret sauce to easy money, but believe me that's just BS. I spend about half an hour each day go through Racing Post stats in order to make an informed choice on a particular horse and that's only in specific UK meetings. It's not because I love RP stats or anything like that, but I need something to have confidence in and hang my hat on. Even if my selected horse falls at the first, pulls up or gets beaten by 30 lengths, at least I know that I've done some due diligence prior to making my betting selection and this gives me confidence because I believe in my selection process and the filters I have in place.

I wish there was a quicker way to making a betting selection, but in my opinion and from what I've read, you have to do some form of study covering things like the weather, distance, weight and trainer course form and mark each horse up accordingly or what chance have you got of making a long term profit? Yes, there will be certain people who've picked a random selection and won a few hundred quid with the best, but was that down to skill or luck? Try relying on that in the medium to long term to make a profit and the bank manager would probably be calling you in for a chat.

It's important to either buy a proven system that can withstand drawdowns or even create your own selection process, as you need a consitancy with your betting selections or you'll get yours;ef tied up in knots. In the end discipline it the final and most important ingredient and that goes for any form of betting or trading.           

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Horse Racing Backing Systems : Having a Plan

I don't have all the answers to making money through betting on horses, if I did then, I'd be sitting by my pool in a luxury villa somewhere in Spain instead of a modest terraced house in the north east of England :(

To make a medium to long term profit with any form of betting you NEED to have a plan. Yes, you've probably heard of someone who's one a small fortune betting on a horse and yes, you've seen their betting slip or the online statement as proof, but was it a one off bet and just down to luck? The real proof is whether that you can make a profit over 500, 1000 or 10,000 betting selections and this really does seperate the men from the boys. I've always been in this game for the long run and I don't always make a profit, but overall my bookie and Betfair account is still going north and that's what really counts :)

There is no midas touch to betting just good old fashioned form study coupled with some solid money mangangement and discipline. Why people continually lose money is a real mystery to me, when there's so much free online information at your fingertips. I guess some people want an easy route or are just lazy and want to try a quick fix with an RP tipster, but following the crowd will eventually lead to the poor house and that's why about 80% of online bettors reduce their betting activity or lose their bank after the first year. Ask yourself this, why do these so called experts on these horse racing sites give you their free recommendation? If they where so good then, why wouldn't they be doing it themselves and making a small fortune instead of getting a guaranteed salary from the relevant company.

You can gain the upper hand sometimes, if you're privy to insider information and are a friend of the trainer or jockey or even if you're present at the race course and can make a more informed decision about the look of the horse in the paddock, but normally what most of us have got to base our decision on is the form in front of us and that is usually good enough.

There are no hard or fast rules to making money from horse racing, but having a good plan and executing it correctly on a regular basis is crucial. If you take shortcuts in this game then, the betting markets can be unforgiving and you may lose your shirt!

All the best with your betting and please make a sensible choice about your plans going forward.   

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Horse Racing Backing Systems : Which One Are You On?

Hello my name is Mark Boyle, I'm 44 years old at the time of publishing this piece and I live in the north east of England. I'm a keen fan of horse racing and very much enjoying watching and betting on the sport. 

In early 2010 I decided that, I would create a betting system based on my experiences with betting on horses mainly through Betfair and decided to call it "Racing Winners", as I thought it was a catchy title and so it proved.

I learnt how to design a basic website in 2009, and how to convert word douments in to a PDF, which would prove crucial further down the line when it came to selling a system for immediate download. I started to document my betting experiences and took Betfair screenshots of my earnings. I realised early on that, I'd found a decent methodology for making money through racing and after a few changes and a couple of new and better filters Racing Winners was born and I released it back in May 2010.

I didn't know what to expect or how it would go, but I contacted the main webmasters of the related UK horse racing blogs and they kindly reviewed the product over 60 and 90 day periods. Thankfully it was approved on all three due to the points and profit gained during each review period and the sales I gained from this was quite overwhelming.

There are certain factors that I always insist on in order for any horse racing backing systems to stand the test of time and that is - a sensible methodology, solid money management rules and strict financial discipline. If you don't have the latter then, the first two will become incidental and you'll eventually lose money - FACT!!

I've read about holy grail and five minute systems that are supposedly giving betting punters excellent returns, but to me that is BS. If you don't do enough study in any form of sport prior to betting and factor in a variety of things that may happen then, how can you possibly expect to make a medium to long term profit? These quick fix systems are seriously flawed in my opinion and DON'T work! Do you think I spend at least half an hour on any betting day doing the required analysis for the sake of it or to make myself look windswept and interesting? Certainly Not!

I always like the hare and the tortoise principle and I think it's so apt in horse racing betting. The hare thinks it's invincible and races miles ahead of the tortoise, but starts to lose momentum, leaving the tortoise to eventually catch up and overtake the burnt out hare. Horse racing systems are not to different from that analogy, so the question is, which one are you on?

The two things you won't get with any of my systems is selections on hot favourites or 66/1 outsiders, as the first one presents no long term value and the second option is for dreamers. The kind of bets that I pick up on are decent UK turf races which give decent odds value based on the analysis and selections usually offer odds of between 2/1 - 15/1.

I have two other backing systems in the horse racing betting marketplace. I released Racing Profits in March 2011 to tackle the e/way markets at the bookies and the place market at Betfair. I followed some of the same principles as my initial backing system and gave people the option of spreading their betting options, but still having the same confidence in their selections. This also worked a treat and although the profits were slower, it was still well regarded in the marketplace and received positive reviews. 

This brings us more closer to the present day and I decided to write another system for the win markets called Racing Success and released in September 2013. There are similarities between this product and the Racing Winners system, but the rules are shorter and the filters are improved in my opinion and that can only be good for everyone concerned. For me this is my best work to date and I expect it to become as popular as my previous two pieces of work.

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