Wednesday, 2 April 2014

Horse Racing Backing Systems : Getting Value 

You've probably heard this countless times in horse racing betting circles, but value is and always will be one of the most important components of betting and can be the difference between a healthy or small profit. Let's just say you had a class 3 horse race at Ffos Las and there were eight runners. Based on the information that you've perhaps looked at on the Racing Post website you thought that, the horse in question had a 40% chance of winning. Would you accept evens money at the bookies or 2.0 at Betfair? If you answered yes, then you need to rethink your strategy, even if the horse did go on and win the race. In the end it will catch up with you and net net, you will eventually show a loss.

One of the most difficult things to overcome with a rigid system with specific rules and filters is value. How do you know that, the chosen horse selection offers real value when your faced with the current odds. The real answer to that is your DON'T! The only way you can address this issue is by having a minimum odds criteria which I always have with my horse racing backing systems. This still doesn't guarantee us value from every selection, but what it does do is to eliminate horses that have lower odds and allows folk to concentrate on horses that have odds which are reasonably attractive.

I've never been a layer of horses, as it doesn't suit my style and I enjoy the analysis side of betting more and looking for sensible angles in trying to find the winning horse. One race however, that sticks in my mind is one which took place at Kelso in Scotland back in February 2010. There were four horses in the race and two of them were donkeys in my opinion. The hot favourite was a horse called Zaynar and there was another horse called Quwetwo who I though had an outside chance of winning. Zaynar had a rating of 168, liked soft ground and the 2m 2f distance and trained by Nicky Henderson, whilst Quwetwo had a rating of 133 also liked soft ground and wasn't really proven over this particular distance, but was trainer by Paul Nicholls. The odds read as follows -

Zaynar : Bookie 1/14 | Betfair 1.06

Quwetwo : Bookie 12/1 | Betfair 14.5

I thought to myself I need a new television for the back bedroom, so this could be a chance to grab so money. Do I back Qwetwo at 12/1 with £20 or lay him for £300 give me a liability for just £18. The laying option gave me the better option, as I have £2 less on the table to lose and the two other donkeys in the race are also on my side :)    

Quewtwo did win this tight battle over Zaynar by one length and I got £300 added to my Betfair account less the 5% win commission and a new TV for not much risk. The moral of the story is, did I get value? You Bet!

These one off bets very rarely come along, but when they do pay attention to the odds of the favourite horse, as some punters just pile money on hot favourites without doing a bit of due diligence. You must ALWAYS have another horse in the race which has a genuine chance of winning, as there's no point in going against the favourite, if the rest of the field are more suited to Blackpool beach than a race course?

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